Racing Returns to Central Park: The Data Behind CRCA’s DJCPC

The anything but normal 2021 NYC road racing season is starting to wind down. But before we bid adieu, this weekend brings one of the biggest races of the year to Central Park: the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic.

In a normal year, the DJCPC kicks off a big three race series in Central Park that includes the Lou Maltese Memorial and the Mengoni Grand Prix. However in this COVID abbreviated 2021 season, the DJCPC stands alone with a much later than normal date on the schedule. But that does not detract from the race’s standing as one of the premier events of the season.

This also means that the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic offers a glimpse into overall race trends and the State of the Sport. We have been analyzing registration trends for DJCPC for several years running and wanted to revisit that analysis ahead of the 9th annual edition of the race.

Not interested in the registration analysis and just want our tips for DJCPC racers? Skip to the bottom…

What do registration numbers tell us about the state of NYC road racing?

The headline DJCPC numbers make it look like registration has significantly dropped off with just 352 registrants this year compared to 419 in 2019 (excluding wait lists in both years, and with a few hours left in 2021 registration as of the time of this writing). But when we dig deeper, it appears that field structure changes account for the entirety of the change, and demand for racing is still very strong. What was the field structure change and how did it contribute to lower headline registration? CRCA invested in replacing one of the four men’s fields with a second women’s field. But more on that alteration below.

Going into this race, we have observed in Prospect Park recently that field sizes have been shrinking as this abbreviated season rolls forward. If we were just to look at headline numbers, this plus the low overall DJCPC numbers could give us pause that the well publicized post-COVID bike boom is not translating into increased race participation. The scale of the decline is not small - at current $50 registration prices this 67 rider decline would equate to $3,350 in lost registration fees compared to 2019.

However, as we wrote about in our analysis of the 2019 Lou Maltese Memorial, there is a natural participation drop off as the NYC race season progresses. Perhaps counter intuitively, early season races like the Grant’s Tomb Criterium see the strongest registration despite decidedly less friendly weather conditions. As the weather improves, burnout seemingly increases, and race numbers fall off. With the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic moving to a late August date, amidst an already turbulent season, it’s decidedly too early to make ‘road racing is dying’ proclamations based on headline DJCPC registration trends.

This is especially true considering some important changes for the 2021 edition of the event that seem to be driving the lower total registration…

Total registration for the DJCPC by year, excluding wait list registrations.

For any given race the total registration numbers reflect the field structures on offer. And as we alluded to there have been some important changes for the 2021 edition of the DJCPC that explain the drop in total registrations.

On the Men’s side the Elite (P/1/2/3) and Category 3 fields are both sold out, continuing the strength observed for each from the 2019 edition of the event. The change on the Men’s side is that the Category 4 and Category 5 fields have been combined into a single field. The resulting Men’s 4/5 field is sold out at 86 riders. But the field combination lowers the effective field limit for these categories, resulting in a roughly 50% drop from the split field structure used in the 2019 edition of the event.

However, the combined Men’s 4/5 field then frees up space to separate the Women’s field into an Elite Race (P/1/2/3) and a Category 4/5 field. As you would expect, the Elite Women’s field is smaller with the exclusion of lower category races, shrinking to 28 registrants compared to 32 in the 2019 edition. But the new Category 4/5 field actually surpasses the Elite field with 38 registrants and counting thus far. The total number of women registered as of 5pm on August 26 is 66.

Total registration for the DJCPC over the past 3 years by field. Note the 2021 DJCPC Men 4 field is actually a Men’s 4/5 field.

Thus, on a combined basis the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic total Women’s field registration easily surpasses the 2018 and 2019 edition of the event. In fact, it even surpasses the 2017 edition of the event which also had split Women’s fields featuring 36 riders in the Elite race and 25 in the Women’s 4/5 race (61 overall). Compared to 2017, the 2021 Elite race has shrunk nearly 25% (at the time of writing), but this is more than offset by significant growth in the 4/5 field.

Thus in many ways the appropriate way to assess DJCPC registration is to compare 2017 and 2021, which is below on the right. This shows the Men’s fields all at sold out capacity, and significant growth in the Women’s 4/5 that more than offsets some slight shrink in the Elite Women’s field.

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So, taken in total, what do these numbers tell us? It’s hard to say. This has been a strange season with COVID, the race is happening two months later than normal, the field structure changes have a big impact on the total registration numbers compared to 2018 and 2019. But a few points come to mind:

1. Unsurprisingly, separating the Women’s field drives greater total Women’s field registration. Putting new Category 4 racers into a field with Pro/Category 1 riders is not an ideal racer experience and that is reflected in the registration numbers when there is a single Women’s field vs. separate ‘Elite’ and ‘Development’ fields.

2. Total registration numbers are down compared to recent years, but that is a function of field structure changes. Even though the headline number is down, all men’s fields are totally sold out, and total women’s registration is up from recent years. Just based on registration, the state of racing in NYC seems really strong. However, Bikereg data may not end up being quite the predictor of turnout that it usually is. A few weeks ago, CRCA announced it would allow all racing members to opt-in to free registration for DJCPC, given the abbreviated season we’ve had so far. Given the free opt-in option, it’s possible that more than usual will be no-shows at the start line.

Are we still nervous about how the bike boom is or is not translating into increased race participation? Yes. But that is a broader concern about NYC racing and DJCPC registration does not appear to provide much insight on this front.

Overall we think the 2022 road season will be much more insightful in assessing the State of the Sport. Hopefully by next year COVID is largely in the rear view mirror, the race schedule is closer to normal, and race participation picks up. But we’ll see what happens... chances are we’ll have more Race Director Diaries style registration analysis to come.

Racing Dave Jordan? Here is Our weekend Forecast

The Dave Jordan Central Park Classic is a park based circuit race, so we don’t have detailed course insight to offer like we do for some of our cyclocross Weekend Forecasts. But if you’re joining a very early morning in Central Park on Saturday we do have a few tips worth calling out.

• Be aware of rough road sections. Several areas of Central Park are not in great shape at the moment. The pavement in the southeast corner of the park, better known as Horse Sh*t Alley, is quite uneven on the right side of the road. And there are several rough sections of pavement around Engineers Gate (East 90th Street) where cracks were partly repaired. There is also some construction getting started at Lasker Rink, but at the moment it does not appear to be impacting the roadway.

• Pay attention to lap counts. The Dave Jordan Central Park Classic is often the longest race in Central Park. This year is a bit different due to sunrise timing in late August, but you’ll need to pay attention to the finish line lap counter all the same. And don’t rely just on your bike computer because if the race starts late, laps may get cut. The lap counter (and the final lap bell) are always the final say!

• If you can, go to early number pickup. CRCA is offering two early number pickup time slots (see your email for detail). We highly recommend taking advantage of one of them. Being able to pin your number the night before and being able to skip long number pickup lines on race morning adds up to less stress and more sleep.

• The park will get crowded, especially later in the race. Be aware that there may be runners, other cyclists, trucks, or even dogs in the roadway. If you see something, call it out verbally. And keep in mind that other park users have every right to be in the park, so be as safe as possible while also being as friendly as possible. All it takes is one misdeed, or one big crash, and road racing in Central Park could be gone forever.

• It’s a long race, eat something and stay hydrated. Temperatures look set to cool down for Saturday’s race. But this is still a relatively long race. Make sure to stick to whatever nutrition and hydration you need before and during the race.

• If it rains, close your mouth through Horse Sh*t Alley. Seriously, it is gross in the rain. And big registration numbers mean that if it rains, muck will be flying everywhere in the field.

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